How foolish, am I to think of life post lockdown when the majority of the states are clueless about the challenges that the COVID19 has posed at them. I think the phrase once burned twice shy does transform well in most of the cultures. We failed to see what was coming in the form of COVID19. At least, this can be said in the cases of the most of the nations. Or better put, some chose to look the other way in their utter arrogance as though they are untouchables, while the other knowing fully well the outcome, what a contagion it would become kept mum for the fear of losing few dollars. Am I out here fixing responsibility? Not at all! Rather, what I am going to talk about is economics. It seems like! I guess so. Is it sin to talk economics at this stage when the world is still coping with the menace of what US President Mr. Trump initially termed as, a Wuhan Virus, yet the most noble institution, that's what it was supposed to be but alas!, WHO, just like an obedient KEEP to keep its master, CCP happy, put it as an 'unknown cause' in the beginning and later sensing the pan pressure declared it as pandemic, and the notorious China being in the seat of UNSC did its best to block any discussions on the transparency over the outbreak. Whatever it may be though, one thing is pretty certain, we are in a big mess now and normalcy is a distant dream. But as it says, the show must go on, and so is the life. What started must come to an end. This is how the lifecycle works, and so is the dangerous looking Covid19 would perish one day. The nations must prepare themselves to be ahead of this eventuality.
Let us not be naive and give away the gains made and the lessons learnt in this torrid time. The governments world over must be vigil and don't let the economy suffer any further. The natural expectation with the lockdown was to bring down the threat of contagion, but together with it brought an undesirable effect on most of the businesses. The businesses which were stuttering on account of the slow pace of economy finally received a death knell in the form of COVID19. The snake had already raised its fangs, hissing dangerously and now it is sputtering venom. The growth engines have come to stand still. Amidst the world politics of one upmanship, there is highly likely of missing the wood for trees. We must not let this time slips from our grip. When on the one side the departments entrusted to manage the affairs of this healthcare crisis are fighting a war at one front, departments managing the fiscal on the other must be awaken to the cause of putting the economy back on track to complements the efforts put by the former. Otherwise whatever the gain we achieved by enforcing the mandatory lockdown would be lost to the peril of weakening economy. Industry must also be prepared to deal with the situation post lockdown and must put the process in place and prevent the situation going out of hand by not managing the resources in the most effective manner. The decision makers need to be in the driving seat. They are expected to put up the most apt teams, with their coruscating laptops, their cherished wisdom, and the ability to summon the best intellect at the most desired time will be the recipe of winning the battle for them post lockdown. Post lockdown, prioritization will be the name of the game. The cuing demands, and fulfilling the orders without letting unscrupulous people manipulating the market would be the most daunting task in hand.
There will be a surge of demand once the market opens up. Whereas, the industry would still be picking up the pieces, the key to success would probably be a) training the manpower, b) traversing through the raw materials, and c) betting big on the selection of the product to fulfill the newly created demand. Did I talk about training the manpower? Are not they already with us? I am certain the world would see a new paradigm shift in the migration of human resources. The lockdown has refreshed our memory on human behavior, a man feels home, when home. Barring few of the positions in the C-level, positions below would be preferred by the residential applicants. The world would witness a massive migration of labor. Thus, speeding up the newly recruits to match up with the pace of rapidly changing requirement would prove to be the most harrowing time for the supervisors. Another tough task with the decision maker would be managing the raw materials in a most efficient manner. The slow economy and the impact of lockdown together have rustled the feather of even most profitable Industries. Time is a great leveler, if there was any jumpstart with anyone, had certainly disappeared by now. Everyone would be fighting for that little pie, further spiking the cost of the raw materials. Only those institutions that have built reputation on their goodwill and IP would survive, and others and especially the small businesses would probably take a nose dive. I don't want to sound that alarming. However, there would still be a ray of hope, if the businesses were able to zero in on the products, rightly assessed the demand and allocate resources accordingly, would help even the small and not so IP oriented business to keep afloat and nail it. Remember, no downturn impacts novelty.
With industrial activity at its lowest ebb, a smallest demand at this time would potentially spike the prices beyond the reach of even the most prosperous people. Thus, an artificial bubble of demand would be seen. At this time, the people will converge to the scanty of available resources, sending the prices go up the roof. This will continue to play for a while, the brighter side of this would be, that a number of people would still have a lot of money up their sleeves and industry would continue to splurge products to cater to this demand. Since the industry would be coming back from its long slumber, there would certainly be a mismatch in the expectations. But as the time passed by, the artificial demand would be replaced by the actual demand. It is difficult to predict when this would happen, since different countries have reacted differently to this situation. My educated guess is, by six months industry would probably be able to gauge the nerve of the people, and hit the optimum by the seventh, and would start producing the appropriate product lines. This would be a signal that the market is now responding to the information available in the public. I reckon, this will be the time for the correction. The bubble which was created immediately post lockdown, which resulted in the surge of demand and vice versa prices, would now be taken over by the sane judgment and market will witness the correction all over. So, all in all, the things don't look that gloomy. Few of the industries will certainly enjoy the post lockdown period more than others. Organizations in the hospitality, healthcare and entertainment sectors will set the whole stock market on fire. They will certainly be recommended in a buy zone by the analysts. Thus, one would certainly witness a bloodbath for many and walk over for some. As I said earlier, post lockdown, there will certainly be an opportunity for many to produce the brightest surge that will help them past the tape.
I expect India to travel this path at much faster pace. India will be ready to hit the market by June and by January 2021 will be in a position to narrow the gap with China*. (*This analysis is subject matter of my next paper, why India would hit the market early and still win?).
Website: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-paradigm-post-lockdown-akshay-kumar/
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